Peak Oil



^ Schematic of peak oil (red is demand, blue is production)      Source: post peak living

 This blog post is a short summary of an article from the Geographical Magazine shedding light on much debated topic of peak oil and predicting if it has been, or when it will, be reached.

 The article defines peak oil as the maximum rate at which we can extract oil. Estimates by leading experts suggest that we are not running out of oil, but instead that the rate of oil extraction will reach a peak. It is generally agreed that this will be outstripped by demand resulting in an oil crisis.

 However there is much debate over when peak oil will occur – some say it has already been reached and others say we will reach it sometime in the next decade. Sceptics, usually from within the oil industry, dismiss the idea of peak oil completely, citing many similar false claims have been made in the past.

 When peak oil is reached, demand will consistently exceed supply and harder and more expensive extraction techniques will lead to a sharp rise in oil prices. This will impact on the global economy and political and social activity within countries. This is because increased shipment costs and the use of oil-based ingredients in plastics will lead to a shortage of goods. This matters because we use and will continue to use oil to fuel our consumer society.

 Peak oil will unravel globalisation, but total collapse predicted by sceptics is unlikely. The shift toward a peak oil society is seen as call for renewable energy sources by some and the collapse of unsustainable globalisation by others.

 Some experts believe oil demand will drop as it has peaked in many developed nations. Others say new technologies (such as infill drilling and improved water flooding) and using oil more efficiently may postpone peak oil and that oil production may plateau rather than peak.

 The Article concludes that we must reduce our oil consumption before we reach peak oil and stresses the need to address the issue early to avoid difficult times. Some countries have already begun to do this but many are currently not.