What will happen to fossil fuel production in the future?

 Over the next century, the sources from which we get our energy are going to change. This is going to be strongly influenced by government’s responses towards ensuring energy security, environmental sustainability and economic competitiveness. The effects of peak oil (see earlier blog post) are likely to become evident as increasing money must be spent on maintaining production (including the refit of ageing infrastructure) and improving energy efficiency. The International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that more than $1,600 billion was invested in 2013 to provide the world’s consumers with energy, a figure more than twice that of 2000, with a further $130 billion being spent to improve energy efficiency. Much of this investment will take place in emerging economies however, it will likely be led by the US as they try to meet national demand and maintain a secure supply.

 As the century progresses, greater Middle Eastern reserves of both oil and increasingly, natural gas, will receive large foreign investment as production on other continents starts to decline. This could lead to increased tension as investors try to secure their supply. Increasing production is going to be a persistent challenge for the rest of the world as the oil prices are still too low, and margins too narrow, to encourage funding by new investors. Companies need to collectively agree to raise oil prices slightly to encourage greater investment, even if this means increased competition.

 As for running out of fossil fuels, it is harder to tell; new reserves will continue to be found, but increasingly these will fall short of meeting demand. Most estimates agree that at current rates of consumption we have 50 years more oil, 70 years more natural gas and 250 years more coal. I believe the Shale industry is likely to increase the lifespan of natural gas in the short term and production may even have to slow so as not to flood the market, but in the end, we are going to have to turn to alternative energies.

 In my opinion, the leading source of alternative energy in the future is likely to be found in biofuels. Unlike many other ‘wacky’ forms of renewable energy (such as hydrogen or electricity to power cars) current technologies do not need to undergo any significant changes in order to use biofuels. In many parts of the world, they are already in use, such as Brazil where almost every vehicle runs on an ethanol/ petrol mix. These are inexpensive sources of renewable energy and with greater investment could solve the energy crisis. I hope that greater discovery in this area may lead us to find an energy rich plant that can be grown cheaply in almost any conditions and used to make ethanol; this would help strengthen weaker economies and provide a secure source of energy.

 Finding solutions to the issue of global warming will not fall to a single entity, but will instead rely on a common responsibility to slow and then reverse its impacts. Although biofuels are not a clean form of energy, they are less polluting than fossil fuels, and will provide a necessary bridging energy while we find cleaner energies. In my opinion, it is technology and legislation that will work together to find solutions to climate change. While scientists invent ever more imaginative ways to reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it falls to governments to cooperate to reduce their nation’s pollution. Only this way can we hope to slow global warming.