What will happen to fossil fuel production in the future?

 Over the next century, the sources from which we get our energy are going to change. This is going to be strongly influenced by government’s responses towards ensuring energy security, environmental sustainability and economic competitiveness. The effects of peak oil (see earlier blog post) are likely to become evident as increasing money must be spent on maintaining production (including the refit of ageing infrastructure) and improving energy efficiency. The International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that more than $1,600 billion was invested in 2013 to provide the world’s consumers with energy, a figure more than twice that of 2000, with a further $130 billion being spent to improve energy efficiency. Much of this investment will take place in emerging economies however, it will likely be led by the US as they try to meet national demand and maintain a secure supply.

 As the century progresses, greater Middle Eastern reserves of both oil and increasingly, natural gas, will receive large foreign investment as production on other continents starts to decline. This could lead to increased tension as investors try to secure their supply. Increasing production is going to be a persistent challenge for the rest of the world as the oil prices are still too low, and margins too narrow, to encourage funding by new investors. Companies need to collectively agree to raise oil prices slightly to encourage greater investment, even if this means increased competition.

 As for running out of fossil fuels, it is harder to tell; new reserves will continue to be found, but increasingly these will fall short of meeting demand. Most estimates agree that at current rates of consumption we have 50 years more oil, 70 years more natural gas and 250 years more coal. I believe the Shale industry is likely to increase the lifespan of natural gas in the short term and production may even have to slow so as not to flood the market, but in the end, we are going to have to turn to alternative energies.

 In my opinion, the leading source of alternative energy in the future is likely to be found in biofuels. Unlike many other ‘wacky’ forms of renewable energy (such as hydrogen or electricity to power cars) current technologies do not need to undergo any significant changes in order to use biofuels. In many parts of the world, they are already in use, such as Brazil where almost every vehicle runs on an ethanol/ petrol mix. These are inexpensive sources of renewable energy and with greater investment could solve the energy crisis. I hope that greater discovery in this area may lead us to find an energy rich plant that can be grown cheaply in almost any conditions and used to make ethanol; this would help strengthen weaker economies and provide a secure source of energy.

 Finding solutions to the issue of global warming will not fall to a single entity, but will instead rely on a common responsibility to slow and then reverse its impacts. Although biofuels are not a clean form of energy, they are less polluting than fossil fuels, and will provide a necessary bridging energy while we find cleaner energies. In my opinion, it is technology and legislation that will work together to find solutions to climate change. While scientists invent ever more imaginative ways to reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it falls to governments to cooperate to reduce their nation’s pollution. Only this way can we hope to slow global warming.

Geomorphological Landforms of Arid Environments

Source: Science Clarified

Plateaus

Plateau – an area of land having a relatively level surface considerably raised above adjoining land on at least one side, and often cut by deep canyons.

Plateaus can be formed from tectonic movement or the erosion by water and glaciers. Magma from the mantle can rise up and cause the ground to swell upward, causing large flat areas of rock to be uplifted, forming plateaus. Lava may also spread outward from cracks and weak areas in the crust, building up flat areas of land. These raised areas of land undergo significant erosion from mechanical and weathering processes forming the features explained below.

Erosion of the plateau is most effective when a band of more resistant rock (e.g. de Chelly Sandstone and Shinarump Conglomerate) overlies a band of less resistant rock (e.g. Organ Shale). Erosion of the less resistant rock leads to undercutting and cliff collapse causing parallel retreat of the plateau.

An example of a plateau is the Colorado plateau in the USA.

Mesas, Buttes and Spires

Mesas, buttes and spires are examples of relict hills that been formed by weathering and water erosion. Sheet runoff exploits joints and weaknesses in a plateau, eroding wadis and canyons and isolating large columns of rock as the cliff retreats. These are called mesas and are defined as being wider than they are tall. These can be vast, but still experience the same erosional processes as their larger counterparts.

A butte is formed when a mesa is eroded such that it is taller than it is wide. Erosion of the butte continues until a thin pillar-like formation known as a spire is left. Eventually the spire will also be eroded away to form a pediment. An example of a spire is the Totem Pole in Arizona’s Monument Valley which rises 130 m into the air.

Pediments

Pediments are gently sloping erosional rock surfaces (rather like wave cut platforms), with an angle of >7°, found at the base of cliffs and steep hills in the desert. They are formed by the parallel retreat of plateaus, mesas and buttes and are usually covered with debris from rock falls or alluvial fans. Weathering and sheet runoff help to develop the pediments as eroded material carried by water scours the rock surface.

Geography Photo Competition

 At the beginning of each school year, the Perse School Geography Department holds the annual Geography Photo Competition. Students submit as many as three geography related photos they have captured in the previous year. The winners are then selected by public vote at the schools open day.

Extreme Tourism: Such a Good Thing?

 Embedded in this post are my entries to this year’s competition.

 The first is controversial picture intended to make people think about the impacts of tourism on the destination location and in this image specifically, the impacts of extreme tourism. It depicts a via ferrata in the Italian Dolomites with people queuing on the way up to make the most of the good weather. I was not surprised to see so many people as routes in the summer season are very popular; however, the environmental impacts of such activities quickly became apparent. In order to reduce such impacts, the areas used for these activities must be kept to a minimum and a percentage of income from tourism should be spent on preventing footpath erosion.

Kings Cross

 My second entry was taken last November at Kings Cross station just after the refurbishments there were completed. Each year, the station erects a poppy on the central structure of the building (seen in the centre of the image) to commemorate those who have fought and lost their lives in combat.

Dolomites

My final entry is a rather boring holiday shot (I didn’t have anything else good to enter) again taken while on holiday in the Dolomites. We walked up to a little church and found this little cross behind it. It was nothing special but the ridge behind looked pretty spectacular.

 If you want to vote for the winners, or just see the talented array of photos taken by students this year, please go to the second floor of the new building on Saturday 27^th September  during the Perse School Open Day.

Desertification is not an issue that affects the UK

 This blog post is a response to an article by the Guardian and tries to answer the question: ‘Desertification is not an issue that affects the UK – discuss’



Source: Chris Madden

 Desertification is a worldwide issue and it is estimated that a third of the earth's land surface is at risk, while the lives of 850 million people are directly affected. In spite of this, there is little evidence to suggest that the UK will become a desert any time soon. Though there are no direct impacts of desertification on the country, there are many indirect ones. The impacts of desertification are a chain reaction in which land degradation on the other side of the world has widespread consequences.

 Experts estimate that 50 million people could be displaced due to desertification in the next ten years. These people will become environmental refugees who need housing elsewhere, many of whom will settle in the UK. This puts new strains on natural resources and the social fabric of nearby societies. This unsustainable movement of people could threaten international stability.

 The population of Africa is increasing, and is set to double every twenty four years, while food production in the region is falling; this means expensive international aid will be needed – these costs will be met in part by the UK tax payer. In the UK where the government is currently making substantial financial cuts, will this stall our economic recovery?

 Every year 6 million hectares of agricultural land are lost to land degradation. By 2050, experts suggest the world will need an additional 120 million hectares (an area the size of South Africa) of agricultural land to support the required food production. Each year we are losing valuable land to desertification which could be used to meet food production demands. This is leading to a rise in food prices and, since 2000, the prices of staples such as of meat, dairy, cereals and sugar have doubled; this is often the result of degrading land and expensive farming techniques such as the use of artificial fertilisers.

 Desertification reduces food security in UK and the rest of the world. Britain is not self-sufficient in food production; it imports 40% of the total food consumed and this proportion is rising. Environmental impacts such as desertification can cause food price spikes such as those seen around the world in 2008.

 In developing countries, efforts to increase agricultural production often leads to deforestation, a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. This only worsens the problem as deforested soils are very thin and become degraded within a few years.

 In my opinion, desertification in countries around the world does affect the UK. If we continue to lose land to desertification at the current rate, we can expect to see a rise in food prices, deforestation for cash crops and migration of people from countries at risk from desertification, to those that are not. It may be expensive, but halting land degradation is in everyone’s best interests, so we can reduce the impacts of desertification on our own lives and the lives of others.

 To read the full article by the Guardian that this blog post responds to visit: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/may/12/climate-change-expert-stern-displacement

Desertification

 This blog post is another short summary of an article from Geographical magazine on desertification, its causes and solutions to reduce its impacts on our lives.

 Desertification is caused by a combination of human activity and rainfall shortages and is defined by the UN’s Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) as: ‘land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities’. It is a slow but widespread phenomenon affecting two thirds of the world’s land area, with 1 billion people threatened by it and an annual global cost estimated at 100 billion euros.

 The causes of desertification include: erosion, drought, overgrazing, flooding, other agricultural and bio-industrial activities and salinization. As a result, its impacts are widespread and in some countries these are equivalent to 8% GDP per year – this is enough to negate economic growth and stall development. Those affected fall behind in terms of quality of life, income and infant mortality. This often leads to them being displaced.

^ Areas at risk from desertification                                        Source: geocases1

 Desertification cuts across many issues, such as food security, climate change and population growth, which makes it hard for the international community to work together to find a solution. Consequently, many believe the solution instead lies in the ingenuity and determination of local farmers (a method called barefoot science). However, the most success is found where the two meet with a combination of scientific knowledge and local traditional knowledge. A planned example is the ‘Great Green Wall’ where local farmers will help to plant a 15km wide belt of trees running across Africa from Djibouti in the east to Senegal in the west.

Is Fracking the Solution to Peak Oil?

 After reading a short article by the Telegraph on fracking in the US, this blog post is a response to the question: ‘If the article is right and techniques such as fracking mean that “it’s time to forget about peak oil” then do you agree with the final assertion that this “can only be a good thing”?’

 The fracking boom in the US and now its migration to Europe and the UK has, according to experts, postponed peak oil and its associated problems far into the future. It has increased oil self-sufficiency and maintained a secure oil supply in countries where peak oil was believed to have long been reached. Fracking and the shale industry has provided the US and Canada with a secure oil supply for the next 100 years. These techniques have lowered gas prices and provided more jobs in the resulting industry. Shale gas has the added environmental bonus of being able to generate electricity at half the CO₂ emissions of coal. How can this be anything other than a good thing?

 However, fracking does come with its fair share of negative impacts: firstly, it uses lots of water - 7 million gallons to frack a single well - which in areas of water deficit could be better used. Thirty percent of the water used is trapped in fissures and lost.

 Fracking is not the answer to every country’s problems; shale (the rock type primarily used for fracking) is not found everywhere and some countries have no recoverable reserves. In countries where exporting oil is the main source of GNP, then the fracking boom is having disastrous effects: US oil imports from Angola slid 67.5% between December 2011 and December 2012. The fracking boom is weakening already weak economies, generally in oil exporting Africa; for these countries, fracking is not a good thing.

 There are concerns that fracking may have negative impacts on the environment. For example, underground radioactivity and other contaminants are brought up to the surface in fracking fluid; this can be spilt into drinking water supplies if not done carefully and may contaminate groundwater supplies.  Carcinogenic chemicals are used in the process and water is brought to and from site at high environmental cost. There is also much evidence to suggest that fracking may cause earthquakes – two small earthquakes of 1.5 and 2.2 magnitude hit the Blackpool area in 2011 following fracking.

 In my opinion, the production of shale oil from techniques such as fracking provides a good bridging fuel while we try to find a more sustainable and renewable source of energy. Fracking and other oil recovery techniques will postpone the problem of peak oil and shale gas reserves are set to provided us with energy security for the next hundred years. To minimise the impacts of these technique, there must be sufficient regulation to prevent environmental damages and we need to buy and use our oil sustainably to prevent energy conflict. It is important that the fracking boom does not cloud the issue of peak oil or our ability to come up with an alternative and renewable source of energy.

To read the full Telegraph article this post responds to visit: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/9905821/Fracking-to-the-rescue-as-US-oil-production-hits-20-year-high.html

Peak Oil



^ Schematic of peak oil (red is demand, blue is production)      Source: post peak living

 This blog post is a short summary of an article from the Geographical Magazine shedding light on much debated topic of peak oil and predicting if it has been, or when it will, be reached.

 The article defines peak oil as the maximum rate at which we can extract oil. Estimates by leading experts suggest that we are not running out of oil, but instead that the rate of oil extraction will reach a peak. It is generally agreed that this will be outstripped by demand resulting in an oil crisis.

 However there is much debate over when peak oil will occur – some say it has already been reached and others say we will reach it sometime in the next decade. Sceptics, usually from within the oil industry, dismiss the idea of peak oil completely, citing many similar false claims have been made in the past.

 When peak oil is reached, demand will consistently exceed supply and harder and more expensive extraction techniques will lead to a sharp rise in oil prices. This will impact on the global economy and political and social activity within countries. This is because increased shipment costs and the use of oil-based ingredients in plastics will lead to a shortage of goods. This matters because we use and will continue to use oil to fuel our consumer society.

 Peak oil will unravel globalisation, but total collapse predicted by sceptics is unlikely. The shift toward a peak oil society is seen as call for renewable energy sources by some and the collapse of unsustainable globalisation by others.

 Some experts believe oil demand will drop as it has peaked in many developed nations. Others say new technologies (such as infill drilling and improved water flooding) and using oil more efficiently may postpone peak oil and that oil production may plateau rather than peak.

 The Article concludes that we must reduce our oil consumption before we reach peak oil and stresses the need to address the issue early to avoid difficult times. Some countries have already begun to do this but many are currently not.